I don’t think it’s fair to put it in the Apple TV category. I don’t think that normal people even know what that is. If it was positioned as a DVR with so much more, they woulda had something - maybe.

The need-factor is where the gamble is at. 15 years ago we didn’t need mobile phones. 5 years ago we didn’t need smartphones. Sure, some were walking around with portable music players 10 years ago - but how many more people got a device after the iPod? Was it really the capacity that got 30 and 40 somethings opening their wallets?

As everyone has pointed out, Apple is great at showing us new things we need.

And remember, the iPod didn’t take off out of the gate. It took them a few years to get their act together - both on the hardware side and on the desktop/store side.

The iPhone was their real magic moment - all the stars aligned for that one.

This is still very much a version 1.0.

The key sign for me will be that initial experience I (and others) have with the device. People LOVED the iPhone when they first got it. Apple just got it right there.

If I love it after I get my hands on this baby - then, yea, I’m in for a bottle.

DeChez — Nice! I think we’re in agreement on a lot of the points — it’s not a game-changer, it won’t create or alter any categories. My guess is it will sell enough units to stay in the Apple catalog but will be more along the lines of Apple TV — a second tier, adds some value product. I have a hard time seeing iPod or iPhone numbers for it, but it will be fun to watch . . . and perhaps bet a bottle on?

I’m still skeptical of its ability to worm into people’s lives for the other functions (reader, viewer). It’s neither fish nor fowl when it comes to games, and I have a hard time seeing large numbers of people adding it to their arsenals for middle-screen viewing when they could not spend anything and go with the laptop or spend the same amount and get a decent TV. And while you’re right on the utility of iSlab-like devices in other areas of productivity, I don’t think Apple’s price point or brand support an industrial strength version of it, someone else, like Nokia or Samsung will do that.

I think we all got fatigued from the hype machine - and how the tech community was feeding us insane headlines along the lines of how the Tablet would improve our sex lives. Especially this past week. Only to have Steve Jobs show us a big iTouch yesterday?! I admit that those first moments of seeing the device were hugely disappointing. For once, all those Photoshoppers out there actually got it right. We always expect Apple to delight us with something we never could have predicted or imagined.

Thus the let down in the early moments of the presentation - for me at least.

So, let’s take a breath and release …

We haven’t even held one of these things yet. A lot of the follow up coverage yesterday was about how great this thing feels in your hand - how natural. I think we can agree among gentlemen to hold off judgement until then.

Now let me pick apart your argument a bit.

Is this really a new category? Ok, well maybe it kinda is. But in classic Apple fashion they’re improving upon (and in this case converging) things that are already out there: Kindle, iTouch, Netbooks, Multitouch computers (my mom just got one of these), portable dvd players.

OK, so maybe version 1.0 isn’t appropriate for the kitchen. But how about when they build in the camera and I can flip the pages without having to touch the screen - or speak to it even!? Not a huge leap there.

Won’t replace TV’s in the bedroom? How many people do you know who sit in bed and watch movies on their laptop? I know a lot. Not to mention the web browsing / book reading that happens in bed too. I guess in that sense it won’t improve your sex life.

Remember portable DVD players? They’re still around. I can’t tell you how many parents I see shoving them in front of their kids during dinner. The iPad is better though. I can load it up with educational games for the kids. My little guy loves my iTouch, btw.

Productivity? Yes, if we equate productivity with intense researching on the web, typing long documents in Word, and manipulating spreadsheets - this surely will not replace the Netbook. But what about a new kind of productivity? Imagine bringing this to Crate & Barrel and using their app to help you decorate and view your room layout - getting large screen, real time recommendations. Or maybe now I can video conference with my repair guy and show him what’s wrong with my whachmacallit - and he can send me the part number and isle number of where to pick up a part at HomeDepot? Point is - there’s another kind of productivity that laptops and smartphones aren’t ideal to solve.

And lastly … the subway. I too always forget that most of the US doesn’t commute via public transportation (or at least the ones that can afford devices like the Kindle). My guess is that Kindle sales don’t hinge on the work commute experience. I could be wrong there though.

The idea of having your Sunday Times (or that pre-ordered Dan Brown book) waiting for you on your coffee table is pretty appealing. Both very different experiences than cracking open your netbook and getting sucked into a black hole. I mean, imagine enjoying the Sunday Times again.

“The Internet in your hands” - once again Jobs distilled the value proposition down to its simplicity. No laptop (macs included) feels natural in the living room. They’re ugly, awkward, anti-social, anti-human machines. Picking up an iPad looks like picking up a book - it looks inviting - it looks social even - it looks fun - it (the video) makes browsing the web look natural.

In that sense Apple just might have truly dimensionalized how we experience the web - and reinvented the midsize-screen computing experience. So, yes, maybe Apple is going out on a huge limb here.

The general vibe out there is “i want this, but do I need this?” My feeling is that the general public is not clamoring to get one of these - yet. The true test will be once this gets into people’s hands. If this survives until version 2.0, I think, it will be (iPhone) huge.

And, no, I’m not a fanboy.

Ah well….

http://apple.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=01/10/23/1816257&tid=107